Mortgage Rates Predictions - What the Charts Are Telling Us

Mortgage rates have a lot to do with how well the economy is performing. When mortgage rates go up, people can no longer afford to invest money in new properties. This, of course, brings a slow down to the building trade and it also means less money will be flowing through the economy.

On the other hand, when mortgage rates go down, more people are able to buy homes. The further down rates fall, the lower the income needed to buy homes. When homes are being bought, the building trade flourishes and this stimulates the economy in many ways.

Remember high interest rates?

It's been 20 years since we've seen double-digit mortgage interest rates. Going back to the late '70s and early '80s, double-digit mortgage rates were the norm. It wasn't until about 1985 after the Reagan administration had put an end to stagflation and the misery index that haunted the Carter years, that mortgage rates found buoyancy at around 7%.

Since that time, mortgage rates have fluctuated between 9% and about 5.5%. All in all, it has been a long stable interest rate environment that we have enjoyed over these past years.

Higher or lower?

Now, the question is where do interest rates go from here. By reading the charts, we will attempt to predict their future movement, just as if we were reading the commodities charts to get a handle on which way the price of soybeans were headed. Then, we're going to make a prediction about another commodity that is sure to be shocking!

At this time, it is wise to make a disclaimer. First, no one can truly predict the future and second, any world event can change what the future looks like now in a heartbeat. Also, you can't overlook the fact these unforeseen world events can happen out of the blue. With that behind us, let's take a look at charts.

The past 18 years

Throughout the '90s, interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages ranged between 9% and 7%. At the time George W. Bush took office, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 8.75 %. From here, it eased downward steadily through the first George W. Bush term. It actually hit a low of 4.75% in late 2003. Here, interest rates ranged between 6.5% and about 5.5% for the next 3 years. This was an uncommonly stable interest rate environment and it was one of the reasons the housing market became red hot, and yes, overbought.

In 2006, the trend broke above 5.5% to about 6.5%, but rates never went any higher. Now, the interest rates are hovering around six percent and trending downward.

Reading the charts

The technical trader, that is, one who trades commodities by reading charts, would certainly believe interest rates, since they are heading downward, would have to once again test the low of 4.75%. It will be important to see if a double bottom is made at 4.75%. If this bottom is made, interest rates will go up.

Because of underlying fundamentals of the market, for instance the Fed trying to lower interest rates to stimulate the housing market, it seems much more likely interest rates will break through the 4.75% low once they arrive there. If they do, a new downward trend will be on the way. Just how much lower interest rates could get, is anybody's guess. However, it certainly isn't out of the question we could see 4% 30-year fixed mortgage rates sometime before this downward trend ends.

4%!

Historically speaking, 4% is a very low interest rate, but at this time it truly looks like we are much more apt to see 4% than a higher number, like 7%. So, for what it's worth, this is my prediction. We will see the interest rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage somewhere down around 4% before an inflationary aspect of the economy takes over.

Where you think this inflationary aspect will come from? Well, here is another prediction and you may find it more astounding than the first one!

The impossible dream

It's all over for the crude oil rally. Crude oil is overbought! There is no reason for crude oil to be trading above $100 a barrel. Like the tech stock boom of the '90s and the housing market bubble of a couple years ago, it is a rally that cannot be sustained forever!

It's anybody's guess as to what the true market value of crude oil is right now. However, to think it is somewhere between $50 and $60 a barrel would be logical. However, when prices fall they tend to go through the true market value before they float back up to it.

If this crude oil market bubble burst follows the same modus operandi normal market bubble bursts follow, I can't see why it is impossible to see $35 a barrel crude oil again; at least for a little while.

What would this mean for the price of gas? Maybe $1.49 a gallon? Well this may seem totally out of whack with what we're hearing constantly coming from our news reports day and night, don't think it can't happen.

Back to reality

Certainly, there will be a time when $100 will not be too high a price for a barrel of crude oil. There will come a time when $3.50 is not too much for a gallon of gas. However, the charts are telling us that time is not here yet.

So, cheap gas, like the JFK, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush tax cuts will stimulate the economy, and like the Bill Clinton Tariff agreements, it will make the cost of living lower which will make more goods affordable to the public. These things, though healthy for the economy, will bring on some inflation and this will break the interest rate downtrend.

I know these predictions seem pretty goofy and maybe they are! Still, my strategy is to believe they will happen and if they don't, at least I'll be happy believing them for now. Then again, if they do happen, we'll all be happy!

Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

2009-2010 Mortgage Interest Rate Predictions

Predicting mortgage interest rates can be tricky. We do have some good information to work with though and make a good prediction. Here are my 2009 and 2010 mortgage rate predictions, and how I made them:

Early in 2009, home mortgage interest rates were around 4.69% for a standard fixed rate 30 year mortgage. These were some of the lowest recorded interest rates in history, and homeowners across the country saw the low rates and took advantage by refinancing or loan modification. Mortgage lenders and banks became flooded with applications from all types of homeowners, and had to do something to slow down the massive amount of paperwork that was piling up. A mortgage rate increase of .5% took effect around May of 2009, which was expected. I thought this would happen as a way for mortgage lenders and banks to catch up with the already filed applications.

This rate increase was minimal enough to still allow truly struggling homeowners a chance to refinance, but enough that homeowners just looking to save money, with no real financial hardships, held back on applying until rates were lower again. This rate of 5.19% is still low enough to help homeowners save themselves form defaulting on their mortgage, or being foreclosed on and losing their home. This is still a good rate to refinance or get a home loan modification. So right now, a typical 30 year home loan will have a 5.19% fixed interest rate. This is where my predictions come into play.

I predict that mortgage interest rates will again be lowered to their prior lows of around 4.69%. This will be sometime around the middle of October this year and should last until April 2010. October of this year will be just about when mortgage lenders and banks catch up with the prior applications, and be ready for a new wave. If you can wait a little you should, however if you are risking your home or finances, take action now.

Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

Mortgage Rates Predictions

Knowing the mortgage rates predictions is a very smart way to know when it is the best time to apply for your mortgage, because you can easily get the best rate and save money.

Also you can also benefit from this information as a mortgage lender by knowing when the rates will go up and when down, so you know it is most profitable for you to lend your money or keep it to yourself.

But here is a very important question...

How Can You Accurately Predict Mortgage Rates?

Before you are able to predict the rates effectively and correctly, you need to know what makes the mortgage rates go up or down.

There are several factors having an effect on the rates. One of them is the stock market.

If the stock market is doing very good and gives high profits overall, many investors will put their money in the stock market and few lenders will be available for mortgages.

So naturally, the rates will go higher because there are still many people to borrow money but few mortgage lenders.

But on the opposite side, if the stock market is not doing good more people offer their money as mortgages so the rates will go down.

Another factor is predicting mortgage rates is the Forex market (Foreign Exchange).

What's more, the current mortgage rates also play a big role on the changes that may happen. So knowing the current rates is totally necessary for you to be able to predict them in the future.

How Reliable Are
Mortgage Rate Predictions?

As you know, no prediction is 100% accurate. This even goes for something as easy as predicting the weather tomorrow.

So in the more complicated world of finance and mortgages, it happens sometimes that even the best experts make a wrong prediction too.

But still, it is wiser to plan your mortgages in advance with a reliable prediction rather than just going trusting chance and luck.

Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

2009 - 2010 Mortgage Rates - Predictions, Trends, and Forecasts

Here are my mortgage rate predictions, trends, and forecasts for the rest of 2009, and a few months into 2010. When a homeowner gets the lowest interest rates they can, they are saving the most money possible. With mortgage refinancing and home loan modification on the rise, a lot of homeowners would benefit from having an idea of what to expect from interest rates. Here are my predictions, and how I made them:

-Right now 5.19% is the average mortgage rate for a typical homeowner and a fixed rate 30 year mortgage.

-Mortgage rates were as low as 4.69% for the same loan earlier in the year.

-I predict that in October of this year, 2009, mortgage rates will drop from 5.19% to their prior lows of 4.69% for a 30 year fixed rate home loan.

Why do I think mortgage rates will drop to 4.69? I think that the only reason that mortgage interest rates went up .5% to their current rates of 5.19%, is due to mortgage lenders and banks being overwhelmed by the amount of homeowners looking to take advantage of the low interest rates, and the Governments mortgage bailout plan. The combination of these two things quickly drew the interest of millions of homeowners who applied for a mortgage refinancing or modification.

My predictions reflect the fact that I think that around October of this year, 2009, the mortgage lenders and banks will be caught up with the existing home loan modification and refinancing applications. At this point, they will be looking for a new wave of homeowners who need a more affordable mortgage. The interest rates, I predict, will be lowered to their prior lows to spur interest in mortgage refinancing and home loan modification.

If a homeowner can, they should wait a little to see if the mortgage rates lower a little. However, if your home is at risk of being lost to foreclosure or mortgage default, take action now.

Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

My 2010 Mortgage Interest Rate Predictions and Forecast

Personally, I think that homeowners looking into refinancing should make the move soon. Right now, mortgage interest rates are at near all time lows, and do not seem to be getting any lower. However, there is still a little time before I predict mortgage rates increase. Here are my mortgage interest rate predictions for 2010.

Right now, mortgage rates have been hovering around the 5.19% mark for a typical fixed rate 30 year home loan. However, with rates being that low, and with millions of homeowners a;ready getting help from the Obama stimulus plan, interest rates are bound to go up. While the housing market is not showing signs of turning around for the better any time soon, it is not getting worse either. This is because a lot of the struggling homeowners have taken advantage of new refinancing options and Government bailout plans. Homeowners who still had decent credit, but knew something needed to change, got into a much lower interest rate on their own before the economy went horrible.

With that in mind, here are my mortgage interest rate predictions for 2010. I think that homeowners who wait to refinance for too long will be in for a shock that interest rates have increased. I think that around April 2010, mortgage rates will jump up to around 6.15%. this sounds minimal, only 1% or so, but in reality, that 1% is the difference for many people between saving a lot of money, and not benefiting at all from a refinance. I think that the rates will rise because they can not get lower, and the housing market will improve in the coming months. With the housing market improving, the entire economy will benefit. With that, money will be flowing again, and rates will rise accordingly. Also, by April of 2010, many homeowners who were in the worst shape will have gotten relief from Government provided programs designed to aid homeowners at risk of losing their home.

Homeowners need to take advantage of the low interest rates available today and take action. While predicting mortgage rates is not entirely accurate, there are many good indications, some of which I have included here, that point to a rate increase sometime in the near future. Refinance or get into a better more favorable mortgage now while rates are low and lenders and banks are looking for more customers.

Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

Mortgage rates predictions are reliable?

Did you ever wonder if mortgage rates predictions are accurate and reliable? Mortgage rates predictions are not easy to calculate. These calculations are performed to project the interest rates go in the short or long term. No one can really be sure where the interest rate will tell. Although some mathematicians and are based on historical data, some hypotheses. It may not be accurate and reliable, because themany factors such as the impact of the rise and fall or change in inflation indicators.

There are many factors that influence them, such as economic and financial factors that may influence the outcome or opportunity. But I do not think that someone suggests to you that the mortgage rates go here, and is the best time to buy. This is pure and simple trick of using a broker or real estate agent, to convince them to buy. There are many professionals who canMortgage rates forecast of earlier data suggesting a trend-based. For experienced sales representatives can make forecasts based on indicators of inflation.

For example, if you have a fever economic slowdown, the fall to put enormous pressure on mortgage interest. If there are too many foreclosures or many properties for sale and no buyers then put pressure on mortgage rates go. On the other hand, it's youan increasingly robust mortgage rates will tend to rise. If there is more inflation, so the higher the return that lenders require to lend money to potential borrowers. And if there is an increase in inflation means that interest rates rise.

The author or the reasons that cause inflation, governments and their central banks or the Federal Reserve to keep printing money too. This will be done by governments to coverPublic expenditure as a deficit and to save some big investment houses and finance companies. The attempt to predict or forecast where mortgage rates are difficult to reach. It deals with the current crisis and the financial disaster that not only the U.S. but the entire world, it is unlikely that you will only predictions.

Making these predictions is like predicting the weather. At some point you're right and sometimes you're soexpression of the brand or chaotic, to say. Financial markets operate on supply and demand. Just like your basic economics, if there is increased demand and short supply, the price goes up and vice versa. But mortgage rates are not so simple. Many factors considered in the calculations of interest rate home loan.

You should not stop them from making mortgage rates predictions, mainly because they are necessary in planning a purchaseProperties. It is necessary to calculate a mortgage or mortgage rates predictions, in order to obtain a better understanding of where your monthly premiums are expected. You can not exactly, but it will at least give you some numbers where you can make an informed decision when you finally decide to buy your dream home.

Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

Mortgage refinancing interest rates predictions

Even a small change in interest rates could mean refinance a big savings for homeowners, their home. Here I will predict interest rates on mortgages for the remainder of 2009, and one for a few months in 2010. Also, I'll tell you why I think that prices change for the benefit of the homeowner sometime in October this year.

To obtain the right to order it. I predict that mortgage interest rates will be lowered in 2009 their prior lows of around 4.69% for the typical 30 years fixed rate loan. Currently, the prices of 5.19% for the loan. While 5.19% is still very low, refinance and save 5% really adds up to a lot of money in the long run.

Homeowners have an average interest rate in this country of about 9%. An interest rate of 4.69% is almost half. The savings would be amazing if a home can refinance at such low> Rate. I think it will be possible in the month of October 2009 This is when I predict that mortgage rates will be reduced to the previous low of 4.69%. If a home owner can wait until then, should be the benefits of the lowest rates possible.

I predict that mortgage rates low in October, because that's when creditors and banks are looking for a new round of homeowners to refinance applications. Rightnow and in recent months, lenders, brokers and banks, with desperate homeowners looking to save money, save their homes flooded or not lost. While this is good for homeowners who need it quickly became a nightmare for providers of office work and raise rates to stop the flow. While the increase was only 5% of this enough to deter most homeowners only looking for was to save money, but still allows homeowners and apartment in dangerlosing their home, the chance to save it.

The bottom line is, I believe that mortgage rates will be lowered in the month of October this year. Although not much, but 0.5% savings really adds up to a substantial amount of money in the long term.

credit report repair

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo

Current mortgage rates predictions

Make mortgage rates predictions is a little 'complicated. Financial markets, including those that share prices and mortgage rates set are chaotic systems. This does not mean that they are chaotic in the use of the word, which means that if you miss at all, but in a mathematical sense, chaotic that the formulas are those identified as mortgage rates to describe the formulas for mortgage rates doThe forecasts are self-referential components.

Make mortgage rates predictions is like the weather - it is impossible to be exactly with the predictions mortgage rates, and how much earlier you try to predict mortgage interest rates, the greater the margin of error in the forecast.

On the other hand, chaotic systems are predictable in broad outline.

If you think predicting the weather, you can notable, the higher temperature for a certain day in August forecast, but you can be pretty sure it will be within a certain range - for example, if you live in Orlando, between 80 and 95 degrees F, and if you live in Copenhagen, between 16 and 25 degrees C.

Just as a general indicator of summer air temperatures are the best, the economy is a general indicator of mortgage rates.

The factors to rising mortgage rates: Inflation

The so-called "real interest",interest rates that move in response to supply and demand in financial markets, are independent of inflation. The order is the "real interest" to '"nominal interest", what will your bank charge you for a mortgage, you can simply add to the annualized percentage rate of inflation.

Factors that make mortgage interest rise: reduced availability of credit

Financial markets operate on supply and demand. If there is a limited amount of anything,then it is for those who are willing or able to pay more for it. The same goes for the mortgage money. Mortgage rates predictions will take into account if the money supply increases or decreases, and also the trends in the demand for money.

Factors that may increase mortgage rates predictions: Increased

In addition to the basic rate of real interest from the broader supply of the economy, inflation and the money available to certainfor mortgage loans, there is another factor that comes into play in an investment decision -. Risk rate mortgage usually depends on the overall risk of the housing market.

If the home values ​​fall, because in some parts of the United States, then the default risk for banks increases Suddenly, meaning that you will want to charge higher mortgage means these forecasts upward pressure into account.

The factors thatTo predict mortgage rates fall: government intervention

The U.S. government is a 800-pound gorilla in the financial markets. With the issuance of bonds in different interest rates, the government can affect the entire money market rate and thus affect the "real" interest.

Mortgage rates predictions on purely economic considerations might indicate that mortgage rates will rise due to, but while the political pressure is high, runningand in an election year, the government is doing everything in their power, however economically irresponsible to push into the long-term interest hikes, interest rate until after the November elections. mortgage rates predictions must use this political distortions in financial markets into account.

credit report repair Bake Chicken Foods

Continuar leyendo

Ocultar articulo